'If we want real democracy, the economy itself will need to be democratised.'
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
'We are at $2.7 trillion and 2024 is not far away.' 'The country will need to grow by 9% every year for 5 years continuously and raise the aggregate investment rate to 38% of GDP to achieve the government's target of turning India into a $5 trillion economy.' 'Given the fact that we are only growing at about 5% and our investment rates are only about 30%, it may take a number of years before we can reach that targeted level.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained the economic growth projection for the current financial year at 10.5 per cent, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID-19 infections has created uncertainty over the economic growth recovery. In its last policy review, the RBI had projected a GDP growth rate of 10.5 pc for FY'22. Taking various factors into consideration, it said, "the projection of real GDP growth for 2021-22 is retained at 10.5 per cent consisting of 26.2 per cent in Q1, 8.3 per cent in Q2, 5.4 per cent in Q3 and 6.2 per cent in Q4."
The Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies on Tuesday welcomed the Union Budget and said it focussed on youth, farmers, women, and has 'substantial allocations' for Maharashtra, but the opposition slammed the annual financial statement, claiming it neglected the western state and only seeks to please the saffron outfit's partners in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.
The coveted QS rankings indicate that India is slowly but steadily overtaking other nations in the field of education.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
A look at six indicators shows all of them have collapsed from positive growth in April to contraction in September.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
'The government has failed to understand the seriousness of the situation, and that's why they are underestimating the problem.' 'They think some tinkering here and there will fix the economy automatically.'
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
Change will have to begin with Mr Modi, who by all accounts has shown little active interest in macro-economic issues, preferring instead to focus on the effective implementation of projects and programmes, points out T N Ninan.
India, which appears to have been pushed back to being the world's sixth biggest economy in 2020, will again overtake the UK to become the fifth largest in 2025 and race to the third spot by 2030, a think tank said on Saturday. India had overtaken the UK in 2019 to become the fifth largest economy in the world but has been relegated to 6th spot in 2020. "India has been knocked off course somewhat through the impact of the pandemic. "As a result, after overtaking the UK in 2019, the UK overtakes India again in this year's forecasts and stays ahead till 2024 before India takes over again," the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in an annual report published on Saturday. The UK appears to have overtaken India again during 2020 as a result of the weakness of the rupee, it said.
Gen Z, don't shy away from expressing your ideas, and millennials, be receptive to new perspectives, suggests Sonica Aron, founder of the HR consultancy firm, Marching Sheep.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to step up efforts to boost consumption and rural economy while keeping inflation under check when she presents her sixth straight Budget on February 1. Experts said one way to boost consumption is to put more money in the hands of people, and one of the possible ways of doing it is by reducing the tax burden through tinkering with tax slabs or increasing the standard deduction. Another proposal is related to increasing the funds under the rural employment guarantee scheme MGNREGA and higher payout for farmers.
'Is the Agniveer scheme or their post-retirement re-employment in paramilitary forces or in the state governments the BJP's answer to the crying need on the job front?' 'Or, even Finance Minister Sitharaman's one-year internship scheme in the public and private sector, is it a permanent solution, either?', asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
We will find it difficult to exceed an average of 5 per cent growth in the medium term, warns Shankar Acharya, the former chief economic adviser.
Businesspersons who have the potential to contribute to the economy of a country are given a red carpet welcome by way of a start-up visa.
The Indian economy requires a Rs 3 lakh crore fiscal stimulus, including cash transfer to households through Jan Dhan accounts to spur economic growth amid the pandemic, industry chamber CII said on Thursday and pitched for appointment of a 'Vaccine Czar' for speedy vaccination coverage. CII president T V Narendran also said the chamber expects GDP to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 as the strong growth in the second half of the fiscal year will be supported by robust external demand and large-scale coverage of vaccination, allowing resumption of economic activity. He also advocated for appointment of a "Vaccine Czar" for speedy vaccination coverage.
India's economic growth is likely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the 2021-22 fiscal as the GDP contraction in this financial year is expected to be less than 8 per cent, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Sunday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised its forecast of economic growth for the current fiscal year (2020-21) to (-)7.5 per cent as against its earlier forecast of (-)9.5 per cent.
Despite all of the PM's many strengths, it is increasingly clear that he does not necessarily have a coherent and clear worldview on matters of macro policy.
'In terms of semiconductors, challenges do remain in the pan industry, but I think we are much better than where we were a year or so back.'
If we persist in talk and little action, I think we will slip. I fear the consequences of sustained slow growth. We need strong, sustained, clever action today, Rajan said.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
In her first address to a joint sitting of the two Houses in the new Parliament building in which she touched on varied issues ranging from insurgency to inflation, Murmu said a country can progress at a fast pace only when it defeats the challenges of the past and puts maximum energy into building the future.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is critically important for India to become a $5 trillion economy, Deloitte CEO Punit Renjen said while noting that over two-fifths of the 1,200 business leaders surveyed in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore are planning additional or first-time investments in India. Referring to the survey, he said India continues to be "one of the most attractive" FDI destinations. "Despite the COVID-19 destruction, inflows hit a record high last year. "Business leaders, whom Deloitte surveyed, are preparing to make additional and first-time investments in India," Renjen said.
Growth in the east Asia region would be dragged down by the poor performance of countries like Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
Hailing India and the UAE as "partners in progress", Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said the ties between the two countries serve as a model for the world and they are scripting a new history in the third decade of the 21st century.
Indeed has seen an increase in listings for drivers, food delivery runners, and other service providers.
'I would recommend two parts to fiscal support. One, support the lower end of the society by direct intervention through ways such as direct benefit cash transfer. Second, give fiscal support to the stressed sectors in line with the Rs 3-lakh crore (Rs 3 trillion) emergency credit line guarantee norms'
'Even for operational buildings, we are looking to smarten them in various ways.'
Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
Trade tensions between India and the US have been rising with President Donald Trump complaining that tariffs imposed by New Delhi on American products were "no longer acceptable".
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
'While the country has been hit hard from a strong second wave of Covid, we believe the markets are willing to look through that.'
The Indian economy's election-year syndrome cannot be ignored, says A K Bhattacharya.
In a submission to the federal government on the size of the immigration programme to be set in the May budget, Australian Industry Group has asked the government to increase intake of immigrants from 190,000 to 220,000 in 2014-15.
Perhaps the finance ministry or NITI Aayog could take a detailed look at what governments actually deliver and at what cost; how their services can be improved and expanded where necessary; how much money can be saved through doing things differently; and how many things the government does which it can safely leave to the private sector, argues T N Ninan.
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