Hospitality players want the government to accord infrastructure status to hotels to make investments on new properties more attractive rather than categorising them as luxury or even 'sin goods' in the upcoming Union Budget considering the sector's potential to play a key role in India's growth. They also want the government to consider incentives in the form of tax breaks or subsidies for adopting sustainable and eco-friendly practices, while asserting that the upcoming budget must accelerate the tourism agenda saying it is an opportunity to make Indian hospitality the emerging engine for GDP growth and employment generation.
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
'We don't have to go abroad for anything.' 'Anyone who thinks we have a lot to learn from the US needs to have his head examined.' 'We are in a new era.'
'In the medium to long term mid-caps tend to generate higher returns, albeit with increased volatility.'
'Barring a temporary blip where stocks fell on verdict day, we are back to all-time highs.'
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
'Even if there is a third wave or a fourth wave, it is hard to see the economy will suffer like that (during the first wave).'
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
The size of Budget 2024-25 has increased 6.1 per cent to Rs 47.66 lakh crore because of the rise in expenditure and higher allocation for capital expenditure and social sector schemes.
'Mr Modi has a huge opportunity before him.' 'Whether he grabs it the way Mrs Gandhi did in 1969 or squanders it as he did in 2014 will determine his economic legacy,' notes T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
Given the high priority accorded to the manufacturing sector, several policy initiatives around the theme of Atmanirbhar Bharat have been set in motion to address its competitiveness and growth. Some notable examples include the PLI scheme and the employment-linked incentive scheme announced in the recent Union Budget. The Budget also announced the setting up of 12 industrial parks under the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme (NICDP).
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
Expect a more modest out-turn of around 5 per cent (if not less) because of the longer-term scarring effects of the Covid shock, the sharply slowing growth in the pre-Covid years and some scepticism about the growth-efficacy of some of recent official policy initiatives, explains Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the government.
This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.
Economies of Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana may have grown at a slower pace than the national economy during 2022-2023.
'The race is now on for Indian IT firms to develop their AI prowess and focus on a software-first approach to services as the people element becomes more complicated with Trump's expected new regulations.'
'We are at $2.7 trillion and 2024 is not far away.' 'The country will need to grow by 9% every year for 5 years continuously and raise the aggregate investment rate to 38% of GDP to achieve the government's target of turning India into a $5 trillion economy.' 'Given the fact that we are only growing at about 5% and our investment rates are only about 30%, it may take a number of years before we can reach that targeted level.'
The finance minister's assertion that industry should not expect any spectacular announcements in the 2024 interim Budget suggest that the electoral imperatives of more tax concessions or higher expenditure on welfarist programmes could be far less pronounced than they were before the 2019 interim Budget, expects A K Bhattacharya.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
There are reports that the government will soon cut income taxes by about Rs 50,000 crore to boost consumption.
Prime Minister Modi, I suggest that, instead, you distribute about one lakh crore rupees per year to the 80 crore poor, which will boost both consumption and economic growth, suggests Kalyan Singhal, McCurdy Professor of Business at the University of Baltimore.
The meeting was attended by 26 participants including Chief Ministers and Lt Governors of UTs, he said while briefing the media.
A look at six indicators shows all of them have collapsed from positive growth in April to contraction in September.
A third of the global economy will be in recession this year, the IMF chief has said, and warned that 2023 will be "tougher" than last year as the US, EU and China will see their economies slow down. Kristalina Georgieva, the chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made these grim assertions on Sunday during a CBS news programme "Face the Nation." It comes at a time when the ongoing conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating after more than 10 months, with spiralling inflation, higher interest rates and the surge in coronavirus infections in China fuelled by the Omicron variant.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained the economic growth projection for the current financial year at 10.5 per cent, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID-19 infections has created uncertainty over the economic growth recovery. In its last policy review, the RBI had projected a GDP growth rate of 10.5 pc for FY'22. Taking various factors into consideration, it said, "the projection of real GDP growth for 2021-22 is retained at 10.5 per cent consisting of 26.2 per cent in Q1, 8.3 per cent in Q2, 5.4 per cent in Q3 and 6.2 per cent in Q4."
Change will have to begin with Mr Modi, who by all accounts has shown little active interest in macro-economic issues, preferring instead to focus on the effective implementation of projects and programmes, points out T N Ninan.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
'The government has failed to understand the seriousness of the situation, and that's why they are underestimating the problem.' 'They think some tinkering here and there will fix the economy automatically.'
'Nirmalaji must consider herself a very lucky finance minister, partly because of the government's response to covid and partly because we as a nation have done very well as an economy, post pandemic.'
'The expeditious enactment of labour codes and strategic measures to bridge the skills jobs gap are critical.'
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
'Today, let us reaffirm our commitment to strive to realise Gandhiji's dreams. His watchwords, truth and nonviolence, will continue to remain relevant for the whole world. He also taught us that rights and duties are but the two sides of the coin - indeed, the true source of rights is duty. Today we recall his lessons in compassion too - compassion not only for our human neighbours but also for our other neighbours, namely, flora and fauna, rivers and mountains.'
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Disanayaka assured Prime Minister Narendra Modi that his country's soil will not be used against India's interests, addressing concerns over China's growing influence in Colombo. The two leaders discussed a range of issues, including a defense cooperation agreement, energy ties, and debt restructuring. They also agreed to initiate a ferry service between Rameshwaram and Talaimannar, and to adopt a "humanitarian approach" to the fishermen issue.
'With India's growing capabilities in the space sector, this creates promising opportunities for enhanced collaboration and market access.'
India, which appears to have been pushed back to being the world's sixth biggest economy in 2020, will again overtake the UK to become the fifth largest in 2025 and race to the third spot by 2030, a think tank said on Saturday. India had overtaken the UK in 2019 to become the fifth largest economy in the world but has been relegated to 6th spot in 2020. "India has been knocked off course somewhat through the impact of the pandemic. "As a result, after overtaking the UK in 2019, the UK overtakes India again in this year's forecasts and stays ahead till 2024 before India takes over again," the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in an annual report published on Saturday. The UK appears to have overtaken India again during 2020 as a result of the weakness of the rupee, it said.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
Quiet hiring allows employees to expand their skill sets, making them more versatile and valuable to the organisation, says Sonica Aron, founder of the HR consultancy firm, Marching Sheep.
Donald Trump's exaggerated opinion of his dealmaking capacity can get him into trouble, observes R Sriram.
